It’s been 7 weeks without football.  I’m well past the withdrawal symptoms and have actually made great progress enjoying the extra day in my weekend with which to accomplish things.   The NFL purposefully stretches out a very long off-season by giving its fans bits of interesting things to chew on every few weeks through the winter and spring:

The Combine for incoming players from college –  This is worse than watching paint dry.  About the only interesting thing is seeing 300 pound linemen run as fast as they can for 40 yards.   That’s not enough entertainment value for me.   I take a pass on this each year.

Free agency – This can be a sexy and exciting time for the fan until you realize that just about every team that makes a big splash in free agency generally fails to live up to expectations in the coming season.  Teams that win Super Bowls generally build from within using the draft (see: Giants, Patriots, Steelers, Packers for positive confirmation, see my Eagles last year to prove the negative side of the equation)

The release of next season’s schedule – The appeal of this for me: fall trip planning.  Once the schedule is released, I start looking for appealing games/locations based on match-ups, airline points available and other events going on in cities around the game days.  This year I’ve got my fingers crossed that the Broncos will be playing on one of two weekends in November that coincide with a trip to Denver.   The Peyton Manning news today only makes the anticipation that much better.

The Draft – I watch the first round of the draft like some people watch the Oscars.  It’s a great excuse to make football snacks, to listen to people talk about football and to think about football.   For three hours, it feels like football is just around the corner, until it goes away for the rest of the spring (and most of the summer).

Against my better judgement, I’ve been paying a bit more attention to the off-season activities than usual.  I’ll be writing more over the next couple of weeks looking at the changes and moves with an eye ahead to next season.

The storyline of a football game can change a number of times before its conclusion.  It’s part of what makes the sport so captivating.  Heading into the 4th quarter, the storyline for Super Bowl 46 looked like it would be that of a cleanly and efficiently played game by two teams with the Patriots pulling out a win due to the Giants overall inability to capitalize on chances in the red zone while dominating other aspects of the game.

Like all good stories, this one had a few plot twists toward the end.

Cue plot change #1: Early in the 4th quarter up 2 points, Tom Brady throws an ill-advised pass intercepted down-field.  Momentum shifts to the Giants giving Eli Manning a chance to drive for a TD and overcome those red-zone challenges.  The momentum gained grinds to a halt as the Giants need to burn two timeouts due to formation confusion and they punt back to the Pats putting the original story line back on track.

Cue plot change #2: After running about 5 minutes off the clock on what is looking like a game sealing drive, the unthinkable happens: Wes Welker drops a pass (and/or Brady’s pass isn’t as accurate or perfect as we’ve come to expect) after running open in a terrible defensive breakdown by the Giants.   One play later the Pats have to punt, and Eli gets another crack at a comeback victory.  The storyline now shifts to whether Eli can add to his remarkable stack of 4th quarter comebacks already under his belt this season.

Cue plot change #3: In a bit of game strategy that likely was being explained across North America by football fanatics to casual viewers, the Patriots (up 2 points) basically allow the Giants to score a TD to go ahead.  The Pats elected to play the odds: they’d rather get the ball back with about a minute left being down 4 (or 6) points with a chance to come from behind to win versus trying to protect the lead and allowing the Giants to attempt a game winning FG as the clock would expire.  This kind of end game happens maybe a couple of times a year.  This gives the story a cliffhanger extension as now Brady has a chance to win his record tying 4th Super Bowl.

Cue plot change #4: As the Pats are driving for an attempt at a game winning TD, Patriots receivers drop 2 easy catches that would have helped them get in better position for a final TD attempt.  Even with those mistakes, the final hail-mary pass comes very close to being completed, but falls to the ground sealing the win for the Giants.

There have been better games this season with more exciting plays, but nothing comes close to the drama and stakes that played out over the last 12 minutes of the 4th quarter considering what was at stake.

Here’s what I saw as a few of the turning points and keys to the game:

1. Eli Manning – A simply stellar game.  His pinpoint 38 yard pass to Manningham on the game-winning drive was brilliant.  Everyone snickered before the season started when he stated he believed he was an elite QB like Tom Brady and a few others.  No one is laughing now.  As an Eagles fan, I hate that this has happened.

2. End-game strategy – I think Belichick made the right call playing the odds at the end of the game.  If the Giants, down by 2, don’t score the TD that the Patriots effectively gave them to go ahead, they get to kick a game winning FG with no time left on the clock that’s the same length as an extra point.  Those are made about 99% of the time.  The Pats had better odds intentionally giving up the lead and trying to score a TD with :57 left.  Those odds weren’t great, but they were better than 1%.

3. Patriots lack of down field threats in the passing game – One of the only offensive weaknesses the Pats have is the lack of a deep threat.  Knowing this, the Giants DBs were able to crowd the line of scrimmage and force short throws.  Brady was 0/5 in deeper passing attempts in the game (including the Welker drop and his one interception). 

4. The Gronkle: The Giants benefited from not having to worry about a clearly injured Gronkowski.  His high ankle sprain reduced him to a shell of his explosiveness.  That allowed the Giants to only play single coverage on him and thereby dedicate an extra DB to other aspects of pass coverage – a luxury other Pats opponents haven’t had this year.  

5. Patriots secondary weakness haunt them – With only marginal talent at the corner back and safety positions, the Pats played a lot of deep zone coverage that effectively allowed the Giants to take small low-risk passing gains underneath the coverage.  The Giants kept patient and took those yards which helped them control the clock.  It doesn’t really show up in the game stats other than Eli’s low yardage per attempt but this was a key factor that allowed the Giants to win.

6. Giants punting – I have a weak spot for special teams performance and the three downed punts inside the 10 was an “off stat sheet” reason the Giants were able to win.  The Pats had long fields to drive all night and had trouble sustaining drives (with the exceptions of the two that bracketed half-time).

Not a barn burner type of Super Bowl, but to the hardcore fan, the game was a chess match for 4 quarters and a fitting end to a great season.  Now what to do for the next 28 or so Sundays?

Before the season started this year, I wrote about some of my predictions.  Really, the only prediction I deserve to get credit for getting right was that making predictions is a fool’s game.   In the spirit of transparency and self-reflection, here’s a look back at what I thought would happen and what actually did.

1. Prediction: My Eagles aren’t going to win the Super Bowl.  Verdict: Correct, but that one was like shooting fish in a barrel.

2. Prediction: I see the Steelers winning the AFC North with minimal competition this year.  Verdict: Wrong.  They had a shot at this until they got Tebow’ed.

3. Prediction: Playoff teams from 2011 that won’t get back to the playoffs this season: Seattle, Chicago, Indy, Kansas City.  Verdict: Got that one right – woohoo for me!

4. Prediction: Teams that missed the playoffs in 2010 who make it this year: Detriot, Arizona, Tennessee, San Diego.  Verdict: Got Detroit and missed badly with the others.

5. A few assorted player and team predictions:

(a) Prediction: Tim Tebow doesn’t see a snap this year for the Broncos. Verdict: About as badly missed as any prediction this year.  Not only did he resurrect the Broncos playoff hopes, but he became the story of the year and turned his own name into a verb.

(b) Prediction: Iron man streaks for Eli and Peyton Manning both come to an end this year.  Verdict: Got the easy Peyton one.  I wish I was right on Eli.

(c) Prediction: Brett Favre makes a November comeback for some team with playoff hopes that lost its starting QB to injury for the season.  Verdict: Wrong (and happy for that).

(d) Prediction: Baltimore’s defence takes a big step back this year.  Ray Lewis gets exposed as a very aging LB.  They miss the playoffs.  Verdict: Think I was right on Lewis.  Missed badly on the other two parts of this one.

(e) Prediction: In the first 4 weeks of the season, someone gets a precedent setting 4 game suspension for targeting an opponent’s head.  The NFL finally takes a real stand on head injuries.  Verdict: Not close.   It actually looked as the season went on that the players started adapting well to the new rules.

(f) Prediction: Ben Roethlisberger has a monster season for Pittsburgh.  He was good before he even realized what practice was.  Look out this year.  Verdict: I’ll consider this one at least partly correct. 

(g) Prediction: The Cincinnati Bengals end up dead last in the league in offensive production and tops in the league in defensive production and play some of the lowest scoring football ever seen.  Verdict: Nope.  Dalton looked pretty good for a rookie.  They found their new star WR and they had an underrated OL.  Their defence (although solid) wasn’t as spectacular as I though they’d be.

(h) Prediction: Colt McCoy starts to look like a franchise QB for Cleveland.  Verdict: (Shaking and lowering my head…) What was I thinking on this one?

(i) Prediction: The once proud Oakland Raiders will have one of the top running games in the league, but without the ability to stop anyone on defence, they end up with 4 or 5 wins.  Verdict: Wrong again (except on the defence part).

(j) Prediction: Julius Peppers (Chicago) becomes invisible this year after a monster year last year  Verdict: Yikes, way off on that one too.

6. By Division predictions:

AFC North: Prediction:  Patriots, Jets, Bills, Dolphins; Verdict: Pats, Jets, Dolphins, Bills (Close, not too shabby)

AFC North: Prediction: Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Bengals; Verdict: Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns (All wrong)

AFC South: Prediction: Titans, Texans, Colts, Jags; Verdict: Texans, Titans, Jags, Colts (All wrong)

AFC West: Prediction: Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders; Verdict: Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs (All wrong)

NFC East: Prediction: Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins, Giants; Verdict: Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins (Super Bowl finalist picked in 4th place in their division – horribly wrong)

NFC North: Prediction: Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears; Verdict: Packers, Lions, Bears, Vikings (3 out of 4, pretty solid)

NFC South: Prediction: Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Panthers; Verdict: Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs (All wrong)

NFC West: Prediction: Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks; Verdict: 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams (All wrong)

Wow.

Two games decided right at the end.  Two goats whose mistakes cost their respective teams a chance to win.   Here’s what I saw in one of the best conference championship weekends in recent memory:

Ravens-Patriots: 

1. The goat – Billy Cundiff’s missed 32 yd FG stopped the Ravens from forcing overtime and obscured the near TD pass moments earlier that would have won the game for the Ravens.  Everyone jokes about kickers until they miss a kick.  If Cundiff couldn’t be trusted for a 50 yarder earlier in the 4th quarter (he’s 1/6 in career FGs over 50 yards) and then misses a gimmie, you have to think Baltimore will look elsewhere next year.

2. Flacco – He took heat all week for his performance against Houston.  Some of it he brought on himself by complaining he never gets any credit when the team wins.  The rest of that was undeserved as he has subpar WRs who couldn’t get open.   Against the Pats, they did get open and Flacco looked strong. 

3. A couple of off-putting items in the Patriots winning performance: (1) Brady’s lack of accuracy in missing a number of wide open receivers; (2) the defence making Joe Flacco and his WRs look like an efficient offence; (3) uncharacteristically taking a knee at the end of the first half with about a minute to go rather than attempting to get into position for a scoring attempt – I can’t remember Belichick ever declining a chance to score.

4. Pats offensive tactics – Baltimore took away much of the passing game by crowding coverage inside the numbers (where the Pats are strong) using extra DBs.  Seeing this, the Patriots took a patient approach running the ball.  This is one of the underestimated abilities of the Patriots – they always take what the other team gives them.  Having a team where egos (players and coaches) don’t dictate offensive tactics is a hidden advantage for the Pats.

5. Ray Lewis – He looked old (and/or hurt) and was slow in coverage a number of times.  He still reads the play exceptionally well, but just doesn’t have 3 down coverage skills like he used to.

6. Coincidence? – Bernard Pollard nearly incapacitated another Patriot when he came close to breaking Gronkowsli’s ankle on Sunday.  He ended Brady’s season a few years ago when he played with the Chiefs and it was his hit on Welker as a member of the Texans that took him out of lineup for the playoffs two years ago. 

Giants/49ers:

1. The goat – With an injury to their primary punt returner, the 49ers were forced to use Kyle Williams in the return game and his two mistakes cost them dearly.  The first mistake was mental – after letting a punt hit the ground, you’ve got to get out of the way of the ball and let it roll dead.  Williams was clearly caught trying to make up his mind to go after the ball or let it roll.  In the process, it glanced off his knee and was recovered by the Giants leading to a TD.  The second mistake, a fumble on a punt return, led to the Giants game winning FG in overtime.  If he doesn’t make the first mistake, the 49ers may have won the game in regulation.  His second mistake, handed them the game on a silver platter.  

2. Ball security and special teams:  I love watching smart football teams play.  What was the strength of the 49ers throughout this season ended up being their downfall in this game.  This year the 49ers won games by not turning the ball over (best in the league), by forcing turnovers (led the league), by winning field position through exceptional special teams and by dominant defensive performances.  On Sunday, they had the defence, but the other aspects let them down and couldn’t mask another pedestrian (and that’s a generous description) offensive performance.

3. 49ers wide receivers – They’ve been non-existent all year, but even for them, they turned in a complete disappearing act against the Giants – one measly catch all game.  They couldn’t get open, and with the Giants able to play single coverage against the WRs, an extra safety was able to be committed to help slow down the running attack and to attempt to take away passes to the TEs.  Many pundits will put the offensive failures on Alex Smith, but in order to make passes, your guys have to get open.

4. 3rd downs – In a game like this, you need to convert a few third downs to keep your offence on the field.  The 49ers only converted one all game.  As a result, the Giants ran 90 offensive plays compared with only 57 for the 49ers.   If it wasn’t for the 49ers defence (and by the way, their tackling in this game was textbook and a real treat to watch), this game wouldn’t have been close.

5. Eli Manning – He was abused in this game – sacked, knocked to the ground, moved off his spot in the pocket, but he kept popping back up.  He made the big passes when they were needed behind an offensive line that didn’t have its best game and with virtually no running game.   Not the prettiest performance he’s ever had, but it was what was needed for the win.

So the Superbowl match-up is set featuring two teams I’m not terribly fond of.  The Patriots, who I dislike due to their fans (…. I don’t mean you, you’re one of the ok ones, honestly) against the Giants who are my Eagles’ nemesis (and who provide immense enjoyment when they’re struggling as they produces two of sport’s best images – “Eli face” and “angry Coughlin face”).    Should be a great one in two weeks time.  Now to remember what people do to fill their Sundays without football….

The divisional playoff weekend is probably my favourite football weekend of the year after opening day.   You know you’ll have 4 excellent match-ups and there are usually a couple of memorable games.  This year was no exception.

Saints/49ers – First game of the weekend and the last 5 minutes of this one were epic – easily one of the best playoff games I remember watching.  After the 49ers got out to an early 17 point lead, the Saints continued to chip away until they took a 1 point lead on a long TD pass.  That kicked off 3 more TDs in less than 4 minutes with the 49ers winning on a last second toss to Davis.   You had the feeling that the 49ers missed opportunities (only 13 points off of 5 Saints turnovers) would be their downfall, but those points were enough to squeak out the win.  Keys to the 49ers win:

1. Turnovers (obviously): Taking the ball away from the Saints 5 times gives you an enormous advantage. 

2. Tacking by the 49ers: with the exception of the 2 late TDs, the 49ers wrapped up and tackled runners and receivers on first contact, something the Lions last week couldn’t do.

3. Alex Smith to Vernon Davis: Davis had a monster day and every time he was matched up in 1-on-1 coverage down the field, Smith found him with a perfect pass.  Two long gains in the last 5 minutes of the game were crucial after the 49ers offense had no rhythm for more than half of the game.  The 49ers got no production their WRs all game long – Davis had 180 of the 299 yards of passing offence.

4. Taking away the run: People often discount the Saints running game, but they use it to keep defences off balance.  The 49ers made the Saints a one dimensional passing attack which allowed them to generate significant pass rush pressure.  Brees was under pressure on many passes and wasn’t as accurate as he had been over the past 5 weeks.

5. Special teams: Akers made all his FG opportunities (the 49ers are going to pay the price for poor red-zone execution at some point) and Lee had an outstanding game punting forcing the Saints to drive for scores from poor field position.   Coverage units generated 2 turnovers that led to points.  Special teams gets overlooked, but the 49ers are the best in the NFL and it made a huge difference in this game.

Broncos/Patriots – Brady was incredible.  His two TEs were a force.  The Pats defence looked good.  This game was a blow-out in every sense and wasn’t an entertaining game to watch (for the neutral viewer).  I can’t remember Brady even being touched all game long – his O-line was exceptional.  When Brady gets this kind of protection, the Patriots will put up 30+ points every time.   Tebow looked horrible and out of place and was completely outclassed.  The off season for the Broncos is going to be interesting.  They have to either fully commit to Tebow and his style of play (and that would mean altering the types of players they bring in to protect him, to back him up, etc.) or drop him and start fresh with a new QB (which would be a PR disaster).  Anything in the middle of those two options will continue to keep the Broncos as a middling offensive team for years.  Looking forward to watching John Elway to see if he has the courage to fully commit to one of two not terribly attractive options for long term success. 

Texans/Ravens – Joe Flacco complained to the media this week that he never gets any of the credit when the Ravens win – this week he showed he didn’t deserve any for the 20-14 win over the Texans.  The Ravens really won in spite of his inconsistent performance.  The defence and a few Texans mistakes get the credit for this win.  Three interceptions of Texans QB Yates (the last two being very much rookie mistakes – repeated throws deep into double coverage on Ed Reed’s side of the field) and a recovery of a muffed punt were too much to overcome.  

Giants/Packers – The Packers played almost flawless football in going 15-1 this season, then ventured into opposite land for this game: a slew of dropped passes, passes by Rodgers that were well off mark, 3 fumbles, missed tackles and an ill-timed poorly executed on-side kick.  The Giants are proving that it’s all about how you’re playing as the season ends and playoffs start.  After getting to 7-7 (and looking very bad in the process), they’ve rolled off 4 straight wins and look like they’ve fixed their woes on the offensive line and on defence.  In particular, their downfield coverage was exceptional on Sunday.  Early in the game when they were not able to generate much pressure on Rodgers, it was their secondary that made big plays to keep the Packers offence at bay.

Many people had an AFC match-up of New England and Baltimore called before the season started, but I assure you no one had the 49ers and Giants in the NFC championship game.   Looks like two great games next week.

Wild Card Sunday was indeed wild, especially at the end of Sunday.  The Broncos/Steelers game was one for the ages.  But let’s start with the dud of an early game:

Falcons / Giants –  The Giants completely dominated this game.  The Falcons, a solid regular season team for the past 4 years are now 0-3 in the playoffs with Matt Ryan as their QB.   They offered little resistance after the first quarter.  A key to the Falcons poor showing was their repeated failures in 3rd and 4th down with 2 yards or less to go.  In not being able to pick up short yardage situations, they kept giving the ball back to the Giants.  The worst miss was a 4th and 1 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  Matt Ryan attempted a QB sneak out of an empty backfield formation which telegraphed the play call to the Giants defence making for an easy stop (lousy, uncreative short yardage play calls have doomed Atlanta a couple of times this season).  After that, the Falcons rolled over for the rest of the game.  Kudos to the Giants for rediscovering their running game in this one.   Their OL which has looked pretty bad most of the year has now played 3 good games in a row.

Steelers / Broncos – I’ll get to the main part of the game in a moment, but let me start with the end.   For a Broncos fan or a football fan without a rooting interest, to see the first NFL game under the new OT rules end on an 80 yard TD pass is one for the ages.   Right off the snap you could see Thomas had Taylor beaten to the inside (more on that in a second) and with Mundy dropping down to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the middle of the field was wide open with no safety to help Taylor to the inside.  After Thomas caught the ball, it was a foot race to the end-zone that sent the crowd into a frenzy.  Awesome finish to a very entertaining game. 

A couple of things that caught my eye in this one:

a. Ike Taylor had a truly horrible game.  He was beaten on the game winning TD, beaten on a number of big pass plays in the 2nd quarter and was flagged for a couple penalties that sustained Broncos drives.   When you pay big bucks to a shutdown CB, you need to get more out of him.

b. The Steelers offence took too long to get into a flow.  Once Ben got moving around in the pocket in the 2nd half, the down field throws started to open up to him.   Backup RB Redman had an outstanding game rushing for 121 yards including a number of big runs in the second half that setup TDs.   Their stalled out last drive with less than 2 minutes left lacked urgency and purpose and cost them a real opportunity to get a game winning FG at the end of regulation.

c. The officiating was pretty bad across the board in this one.  Ron Winter (my least favourite ref) missed a number of facemask penalties and spent what seemed like a 1/2 hr in total under the replay hood.   His crew members blew a few calls that required a video replay to overturn (and one that video replay couldn’t fix because of an arcane NFL rule).  At the start of overtime, I was convinced he would find a way to affect the outcome of the game or screw it up somehow.

d. The Broncos showed a very nice game plan mixing up the run and pass and keeping the Steelers defence off balance all night.  When Tebow can hit the mid-range and deep passes off play action roll-outs, the Broncos can be dangerous. He only completed 10 passes, but saw those go for 316 yards.   The Steelers defenders couldn’t get a read on pass vs. rush plays and weren’t able to flush Tebow to his right to limit his effectiveness out of the pocket.  The Broncos may not have a traditional NFL offence, but on any given Sunday….

The Steelers loss puts an end to any household rooting interests the rest of the way.  I’m giving my loving fiance some space to grieve right now as she puts her Terrible Towel away for another season.