Wild Card Saturday observations

January 8, 2012June 3, 2012 / Greg / Leave a comment

Two entertaining wildcard games on Saturday. Here’s what I saw:

Bengals/Texans – Two evenly matched teams on paper with relatively predictable offences – this usually means that whoever wins the turnover battle and the battle of the offensive and defensive lines will emerge with the victory. This was certainly the case on Saturday afternoon. The Texans OL dominated the Bengals. They ran the ball at will with very vanilla play calling. The Texans DL got to Dalton a number of times (deflected passes, sacks, forcing an interception that was returned for a TD) and completely stuffed the run all game. Three Bengals turnovers sealed their fate.

One side note on the Bengals – because a member of my household has a strong rooting interest in the AFC North, I end up catching a few more Bengals games a year than I might like to. Their coach (Marvin Lewis) continued to show his ineptitude in game management (this wasn’t a one time thing on Saturday – this plagues that team every year). His two replay challenges were utterly foolish. His early challenge on the spot of the ball on a 3rd and 1 was clearly wrong (after a touch-back the runner has to get to the 30 yard line for a first down so there should’ve been no doubt on the call on the field) – you also just don’t see many spot challenges won. For a relatively insignificant first down early in the game, it’s not worth wasting that challenge. His second challenge on a catch by the Texans TE in the second quarter was just as bad. He reacted to his players reaction on the field and got caught up in the emotion of the moment. On the play, it was clearly a catch (ball never touched the ground, receiver was laying on his back so there was no way he couldn’t have been down by contact). The cost of those challenges were two timeouts which meant their two drives at the end of the first half didn’t have the extra time they could have. Although their lack of challenges the rest of the game didn’t cost them in the second half, it’s tough to overlook this lack of basic game management in a head coach.

Lions/Saints – What started out as a close back and forth game turned into a blowout as a series of missed opportunities and mistakes started to stack up for the Lions. In order to beat the Saints in New Orleans, Detroit needed to play mistake free football and capitalize on the few chances that would come their way during the game. Instead, the Lions:

a. scored no points after recovering two rare Saints fumbles

b. dropped two interceptions on bad passes by Brees (one by Berry, one by Wright)

c. couldn’t tackle Saints running backs and receivers on first contact allowing significant extra yardage to a team that needs no additional help

d. missed opportunities to force the Saints to punt on three 3rd and long situations

e. failed to cover Graham (really, he’s 6’7”, 265lbs and you forget to put anyone on him?) on 1st and goal from the 1 resulting in an easy TD toss for Brees

f. completely blew the coverage on the Meachem TD with a safety jumping an inside route that needed no extra help leaving the WR wide open 20 yards behind coverage

… after all of that, the 2 interceptions thrown by Stafford late in the 4th didn’t matter much as the Lions were in desperation mode

On the Saints side of the ledger, an exceptional offensive performance by the whole team racking up more than 620 yards of offence (a playoff record). The OL kept Brees clean all night – he only took one big hit all game with the Lions feared front 4 never getting any pressure. Under the radar of Brees’ gaudy passing numbers was more than 160 yards of rushing in the game to help keep the Lions defence off balance. I really loved the two aggressive calls by Sean Payton (going for it on 4th and inches inside their territory in the 3rd quarter and going for it on 4th and 2 from the Lions 40 with 11:00 to go in the 4th). He knew the Lions had a potent offence and that his team couldn’t sit on their small lead at the time and hope their defence would win them the game.

Report card: Eagles season in review

January 4, 2012June 3, 2012 / Greg / Leave a comment

Failure.

It’s the only word for a season of heightened expectations for a team and a city so desperate for a title. With all of the free agent acquisitions and the amount of pure talent amassed this year, there is no other way to describe the season than as a failure. A complete and absolute failure. So how does a team that was stacked at many positions and with a coach entering his 13th year at the helm of a team stumble their way to an 8-8 record? With my vision now 20/20 after 16 games, here’s how I saw the Eagles this year.

A couple of things to remember before the position by position report card (because really, at its heart, football is a team sport) ….

Offense: Ranked 4th in the league by yardage and 8th by points scored, this was all undone by a league worst 36 turnovers (including 24 interceptions). Very simply, this was a case study in why protecting the ball is so important. If the Eagles were just average in giving the ball away, they’re in the playoffs (and I have a reason to pull out my vintage Ron Jaworski jersey at least one more time before September).

Defence: Here too, the stats lie a bit on the overall effectiveness. The Eagles ranked 8th in yards allowed, 10th in points allowed, middle of the pack in turnovers generated and led the NFL in sacks with 50. A very respectable performance, except many of those stats were padded in games against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Take out their performances since starting the season 4-8, and the Eagles rank in the bottom third of the league in all defensive measures.

Special teams: As shown in a great statistical analysis here, the Eagles were almost dead on average in overall special teams performance (kicking, punting, returning, coverage) when adjusted for factors outside of their control. Looking deeper two critical weaknesses become apparent: (1) the kick/punt returning was near the bottom of the league; and (2) their punting performance ranked 27th out of 32 teams; combine those two together, and the Eagles end up losing the field position battle too often in games – that is the hidden yardage for the opposition that doesn’t show up in the core offensive and defensive stats above.

Here’s how I saw the performance position by position, and in some cases, player by player.

Offensive line (grade: A) – One of the few bright spots. What started out as a perceived weakness, really showed excellent form after the first game as a run blocking line. As the season went on, the grouping of Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Watkins and Herremans began to pass protect as well. This line has a nice blend of youth and experience and should the Eagles be able to keep Howard Mudd (OL coach) around for another year, this should be a strong point in 2012.

Wide receivers and tight ends (overall grade: C) – This unit just didn’t work in 2011. Jackson (grade: D) looked disinterested most of the year and didn’t play fearlessly as he needs to. Avant (grade: C), although generally reliable, had some untimely drops. Cooper (grade: C) is still struggling to find his niche as a 3rd or 4th receiver. Maclin (grade: B) became the team’s #1 WR this year and was the best of the bunch, but was still very quiet and inconsistent for long stretches of many games. At TE, Celek (grade: B) was solid and had some spectacular contributions once Vick starting finding him as the year wore on.

Running backs (overall grade: A) – McCoy (grade: A) had a breakout year and nearly won the rushing title. Everytime he has the ball, he’s a threat for a big play. The other running backs (Brown, Lewis) saw only spot duty through the season and I expect the Eagles will look elsewhere for complimentary backs in 2011. Schmidt at FB doesn’t get on the field much but is a capable blocker.

Quarterback (overall grade: C) – Let’s first dispense with grading backup Vince Young (grade: F). He was terrible. With the exception of the 17 play drive in the 4th quarter to beat the Giants, he was cover your eyes bad and ruined the game I got to go to in Seattle. Vick (grade: C) was only ok. He turned the ball over far too often and his inability to slide or run out of bounds ended up costing him a few games as starter. He continues to show athleticism which is unmatched, but the errors he made cost the team games this year. As a short QB, he’s got to find a way to eliminate the number of tipped and deflected passes at the line of scrimmage.

Defensive line (overall grade: B) – 2011 was a strong year for the front 4. In particular, the line was able to exert pressure on the opposing QBs without needing to blitz (which did put them at a disadvantage in stopping the run until some scheme changes were made around the middle of the year). Babin (grade: B) came close to leading the league in sacks but is one dimensional and was weak against the run. Cole (grade: A) had another 10+ sack year and is dangerous against the run and pass – he’s the true star of the DL. Jenkins (grade: B) provided stability and leadership. Patterson (grade: B) doesn’t have flashy stats, but is solid and a key cog. The Eagles use a rotation to keep their D-line fresh and the other guys (Parker, Landri, Tapp, Hunt, Laws) all played well in more limited duty.

Linebackers (overall grade: D) – This unit really struggled until the last quarter of the season. Generally undersized and fast, they took poor angles in tackling, had difficulty covering RBs and TEs in the passing game and lacked the physicality needed to play in the front 7 (with the notable exceptions of games vs the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins in the first 3/4 of the season). Rolle has speed to burn but was very inconsistent. After a very difficult start, Matthews started to look more comfortable over the last few games but it’s hard to see him as much more than a situational contributor next year. Jordan, Chaney and Clayton look like reasonable supporting pieces, but not as the featured full-time players they were in 2011 where they broke down too often. Significant attention needs to be paid to this position group in the offseason.

Cornerbacks (overall grade: C) – Outside of the red-zone, this unit probably scores out as a B, but their play in the red zone drops them a letter grade in my books. Samuel (grade: B) had a strong season, but will likely not be back in 2012. Asomugha (grade: C) played ok, but had some very high profile mistakes throughout the year. Rogers-Cromartie (grade: C) was underwhelming, but in a theme for the defence as a whole, played better in the second half of the year. Hanson (grade: C) is serviceable as a 3rd or 4th corner but struggled when his playing time increased due to injuries with the rest of the group.

Safeties (overall grade: D) – Red-zone coverage failures and inconsistency drop their grade to D. Allen is an enigma – at times he looks like a good young prospect, at other times he looks like a lost rookie. Here’s hoping that with a completely healthy off-season he can play up to his promise in 2012. Jarrett looked over-matched at times and didn’t do a great job in run support. This is a position the Eagles have to address in the offseason.

Kicking (Henery – grade: B) – The rookie looked good throughout the year. He cost the Eagles the game against the 49ers with 2 misses, but other than that, was very accurate. He doesn’t have a big leg. I watched him in warm-ups in perfect conditions in Seattle and he was barely making 53-54 yard kicks. Kick-off performance was 19th in the league in average starting position for the opposition which is a bit of a weakness. Henery needs better kick coverage to hide his weaker than average leg. He can’t boom every kick for a touch back like so many other kickers in the league.

Punting (Henry – grade: D) – Another rookie, he looked uncomfortable at the angle punting game and trying to down punts inside the 10. He doesn’t have a big leg, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles really try to improve this position next year. The Eagles ranked 27th in the league in net punting average (much of that on the punter, their coverage/pursuit looked at least average to me). As a side note, the punter the Eagles released (Rocca, to the Redskins) had a career year for Washington.

Kick/Punt Returning (grade: D) – What was a strength in 2010 was a team weakness this season. On the punt return the Eagles ranked 27th in average return length – Jackson couldn’t break any long returns and frequently lost yards looking for the big play. The Eagles had 3 turnovers on punt returns this year – not acceptable. On the kick return, I can’t remember one being brought back past the 40 all year and the Eagles ranked 31st in return average. A few fumbles didn’t help either. The returners and the blockers need a massive overhaul.

Specialty Coaching – This was a real mixed bag. Starting with the positives, you could see the positive impact of Mudd (grade: A) coaching of the OL and Washburn (grade: A) coaching the DL. Those two units were significantly improved over 2010. Special teams coordinator Avril (grade: D) had a rough year as the Eagles ranked at the bottom of kicking and returning stats in terms of field position and net averages. Overall defensive coordinator Castillo (grade: C) struggled until the last few games. He never coached defence until this year and it showed. Offensive coordinator Mornhinweg (grade: C) had his ups and downs – he still falls in love with the passing game and forgot he had a pro bowl running back for long stretches of games; overall he did a reasonable job in play-calling except in relying too much on the pass while Vick was injured.

Head Coach (grade: C) – The million dollar question for Eagles fans was whether Andy Reid will be back in 2012 – on Tuesday we learned he will be. He was better in some aspects this year (replay challenges), but struggled with some familiar problems (timeouts and game management seem to be some form of kryptonite to him, and I can’t explain him promoting his OL coach into the defensive coordinator role for this season). He still has command of the locker room as evidenced by the finish of the team which counts for something. I think this year he’ll have to do a better job of selling his 2012 plan to team management. I hope one of the items on his list is returning to having a team of high quality guys. His recent experiments with highly talented but lower character guys (going back to TO, DJax this year, and dare I say it, Michael Vick) hasn’t panned out yet.

Week 17 observations

January 2, 2012June 3, 2012 / Greg / Leave a comment

And with the 17th week of football, the 2011-12 regular season drew to a close. With the tension of having a horse in the race taken out of the equation for me, it was a good week to just enjoy some football and watch as many games as I could. Here’s what I saw this week:

Eagles: The 34-10 win over the Redskins got them to 8-8 on the season and really just made me wonder what might have been. The last 4 wins came against some pretty bad opposition that missed the playoffs themselves (Jets, Dolphins, Redskins, Cowboys) so the upswing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. On Sunday, the defence played confidently and it never felt like Washington was going to mount a threat. On the other side of the ball, with McCoy injured, the Eagles abandoned the run. Vick looked comfortable most of the day in the pocket and Celek and Maclin both had big days catching passes. All in all, it was hard to focus on this game as there was nothing either team was playing for. I spent a good deal of the afternoon watching the other games flash by on RedZone.

Packers/Lions: Shoot-out games are great fun to watch. Big props to Packers backup QB Flynn for setting single game Packers passing records for yards and TDs (eclipsing previous marks of some pretty good company: Starr, Favre and Rodgers). A bit worrisome for the Packers is their defence going into the playoffs. Although they rested a few key starters, they still give up far too much yardage. Their hallmark all year has been generating turnovers. If that dries up, it might cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.

Patriots/Bills: Another team with lights-out offence and cover your eyes defence, the Pats rolled up 49 straight points after getting down 21-0 early. Of interest early in this game was Bills receiver Steve Johnson earning his second post-TD celebration penalty of the season for a premeditated celebration. He was promptly benched for the rest of the game and that took the steam out of the Bills attack. There’s no excuse for not knowing the rules and there really isn’t any excuse for his stupidity this year.

Steelers: They struggled for a 13-9 win in Cleveland, fighting through two big fumbles, a season-ending injury to Mendenhall, wicked wind gusts and an immobile QB. They’re not healthy heading into their playoff game next week against the Broncos. They tend to win ugly and I think they’re a decent bet to make the AFC championship game, even with the injuries.

Broncos: They completely backed into the playoffs and I think the Tebow mania has died down a bit. After his 6/22 60yd performance in a losing effort, I’m not sure how the Broncos will generate enough offence against the Steelers next week to get a win. The Steelers have the talent to match up man-to-man against the Denver receivers, commit an extra safety to stopping the tun and force Tebow to pass his way to victory. If the Steelers keep the mistakes on offence and special teams to a minimum, they should be moving on next week.

Raiders: With the Broncos loss, the Raiders could have made the playoffs with a win. In true Raiders style, they choked away that opportunity and miss the playoffs yet again. After the game, their head coach completely threw his team under the bus in his press conference, insinuating that it’s the players responsibility to make plays (it is, but abandoning the “it’s all about team” when the going gets tough is not a sign of leadership). He also said next year he’ll be more involved in all facets of team preparation next year. This is another great example of how most NFL teams, players and coaches don’t understand much about leadership and human behaviour.

Cowboys/Giants: I really dislike both of these teams, but it was good to see the Cowboys completely hand this one to the Giants with a laundry list of mistakes. The ‘Boys botched 3 opportunities for fumble recoveries, dropped passes, missed open receivers, ran an ill-fated 4th and 1 play late in the game and that doesn’t even cover all of the bone headed defensive lapses by CB Newman. The Giants OL looked good for one of the few times this year, but I wouldn’t trust this team to make a deep playoff run. Not that they won’t, but the Giants have been far too inconsistent this year and one game doesn’t change that.

Although my Eagles season ended too early this year, I got a small moral victory on Sunday. Each year, Jodi and I pick games against each other for bragging rights. I secured those rights when the Cardinals beat the Seahawks in OT to give me the slimmest of winning margins – 1 pick up after 256 games. All tolled, I picked 173 of 256 correctly putting me ahead of all of the ESPN “experts” except their statistical analysis Accuccore picks.